GHG Inventory
Emissions, removals, activity data, emission factors and uncertainty.
Uncertainty
Uncertainty of activity data comes from the error-adjusted area estimator (Olofsson et al., 2013) applied to each change map. Uncertainty of emission factors comes from a bootstrap simulation of the pilot plot data (IPCC 2006, Vol. 1 Ch. 3): mean factor 183.51, 95% interval 142.34–228.95. The two are combined by error propagation.
Details by map and by stratum: Quality & Transparency › Uncertainty Assessment.
Uncertainty in the national GHG inventory (NID 2024)
Using the flexibility allowed to developing countries, the inventory discusses uncertainty qualitatively rather than as a number. The main sources in the land sector are:
- Activity data: different numbers of interpreted sample points in each period and different interval lengths between periods.
- Forest emission factors: the small sample of the pilot forest inventory.
- Perennial cropland: factors from one agroforestry species (Grevillea) applied to all perennial crops.
- Grassland: tropical shrubland defaults, and the expert-judgement assumption that open grassland holds half the carbon of wooded grassland.
Source: Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, Kenya's Third National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Document 1990–2022, December 2024 (Kenya’s national inventory report to the UNFCCC). Chapters 1.6 and 6.4.4.
Source: Ministry of Environment and Forestry, The National Forest Reference Level for REDD+ Implementation, December 2019 (Kenya’s FRL submission to the UNFCCC). Chapter 7.