FREL / FRL
Forest reference (emission) levels and their methods.
Historical Reference
Why 2002–2018
- 2002 follows the major excisions of montane forest in 2001 (71,000 ha, mainly in the Mau complex) and marks the start of forest governance reform that led to the Forest Act 2005 and the Forest Conservation and Management Act 2016.
- From 2002 large-scale development under Vision 2030, devolution (2010) and a series of climate, land and forest policies changed pressures on forests, both positively and negatively.
- SLEEK land cover maps exist for every year from 2002 to 2015 and for 2018. Four-year intervals (2002, 2006, 2010, 2014, 2018) align the FRL with the five-year intervals of the National Inventory Report.
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Net average 2002–2018: 52.2M t CO₂/yr
| REDD+ activity | 2002–2006 | 2006–2010 | 2010–2014 | 2014–2018 | Average | Share (KCA) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deforestation | 54,755,246 | 39,143,087 | 48,736,134 | 50,033,292 | 48,166,940 | 67.59% |
| Forest degradation | 13,836,587 | 8,350,601 | 9,563,829 | 11,792,785 | 10,885,950 | 15.28% |
| Sustainable management of forests | 2,732,682 | 1,829,312 | 1,887,435 | 4,276,302 | 2,681,433 | 3.76% |
| Enhancement of carbon stocks | -8,490,930 | -11,223,826 | -9,758,555 | -8,647,746 | -9,530,264 | 13.37% |
| Net emissions | 62,833,585 | 38,099,174 | 50,428,843 | 57,454,634 | 52,204,059 |
Projection
A linear trend through the four epochs had a weak fit (low R²), so the FRL projects the historical average forward unchanged as the business-as-usual level. The analysis of national circumstances found no reason to adjust it.
Historical (FRL report)Projected: historical averageUncertainty ±16%
Source: Ministry of Environment and Forestry, The National Forest Reference Level for REDD+ Implementation, December 2019 (Kenya’s FRL submission to the UNFCCC). Chapters 2.3, 4.2 and 6.