Uncertainty Assessment
Uncertainty methods, maps, statistics and reporting.
Uncertainty Reporting
±16%FRL52.2 ± 8.3 Mt CO₂/yr
3.32%Activity data
24.8%Emission factors
39.7%Mean change-map accuracy
| Change map | Overall accuracy | Uncertainty |
|---|---|---|
| 2002–2006 | 41.05% | ±4.94% |
| 2006–2010 | 51.9% | ±4.03% |
| 2010–2014 | 35.75% | ±2.17% |
| 2014–2018 | 30.01% | ±2.15% |
| Stratum | Canopy | Mean AGB t/ha | Std dev | Plots | Uncertainty % | Uncertainty of mean % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montane & western rain forests | Dense | 244.8 | 157.94 | 8 | 126.46 | 44.71 |
| Montane & western rain forests | Moderate | 58.43 | 34.64 | 7 | 116.2 | 43.92 |
| Montane & western rain forests | Open | 23.26 | 13.64 | 6 | 114.94 | 46.92 |
| Mangroves & coastal forests | Dense | 94.63 | 45.03 | 18 | 93.27 | 21.98 |
| Mangroves & coastal forests | Moderate | 60.45 | 31.9 | 12 | 103.43 | 29.86 |
| Mangroves & coastal forests | Open | 35.47 | 34.03 | 16 | 188.04 | 47.01 |
| Dryland forests | Dense | 42.43 | 32.11 | 8 | 148.33 | 52.44 |
| Dryland forests | Moderate | 34.52 | 15.01 | 8 | 85.22 | 30.13 |
| Dryland forests | Open | 14.26 | 6.89 | 7 | 94.7 | 35.79 |
| Plantation | — | 324.79 | 249.38 | 36 | 150.49 | 25.08 |
Checks by KFS: the FRL text gives activity-data uncertainty as both 2.9% and 3.32% (the calculation uses 3.32%), and Table 35 lists different plot numbers and means for some classes than Table 14 and Annex 3 (for example montane open forest: 6 plots and 23.26 t/ha vs 5 plots and 18.31 t/ha). The emission factors use Table 14.
National GHG inventory (NID 2024)
The 2024 inventory reports uncertainty qualitatively for each sector, using the flexibility for developing countries (paragraph 29 of decision 18/CMA.1), because input data for a quantitative estimate were not available. Quantitative uncertainty is planned subject to support.
Source: Ministry of Environment, Climate Change and Forestry, Kenya's Third National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Document 1990–2022, December 2024 (Kenya’s national inventory report to the UNFCCC). Chapters 1.6 and 1.9, Table 1-9.
Source: Ministry of Environment and Forestry, The National Forest Reference Level for REDD+ Implementation, December 2019 (Kenya’s FRL submission to the UNFCCC). Chapter 7, Tables 34 and 35.